There is a belief that the most recent Bitcoin halving has not impacted the price of Bitcoin as significantly as previous halvings. Is there any basis for this assumption? To explore this, let’s review a comparative analysis published by Halving Tracker on X.
Post-Halving Bitcoin Price Momentum: A Comparative Analysis
Bitcoin halving, which reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is introduced to the market, is a crucial event that occurs approximately every four years. The Bitcoin market has experienced four such halvings so far: the first on November 28, 2012; the second on July 9, 2016; the third on May 11, 2020; and the fourth, most recent, on April 19, 2024.
As of today, about 136 days have passed since the latest halving, with Bitcoin currently priced around $59,025.63. On April 19, 2024, the price was approximately $63,770, reflecting a decline of 7.44%.
In comparison, after the first halving on November 28, 2012, the price of Bitcoin was around $25. About 136 days later, on April 14, 2013, the price had surged to $119, marking a 376% increase.
Following the second halving on July 9, 2016, Bitcoin was priced at nearly $664. After 136 days, by November 23, 2016, the price had risen to around $762, representing a 14.76% increase.
On May 11, 2020, the day of the third halving, Bitcoin was valued at approximately $8,545. Around 136 days later, on September 25, 2020, the price had climbed to $10,733, showing a 25.61% increase.
Post-Halving Price Expectations: An In-Depth Study
Had Bitcoin followed similar percentage increases as observed after previous halvings:
- The price would have reached $303,545.20 if it had mirrored the 376% increase seen after the first halving.
- The price would have climbed to $73,181.84 if it had followed the 14.76% increase observed after the second halving.
- The price would have risen to $80,098.70 if it had matched the 25.61% increase recorded after the third halving.
A similar conclusion is evident in the post shared by Halving Tracker on X.
Conclusion
In summary, compared to the price behavior following the first three halvings, the price momentum seen after the latest halving has been notably disappointing.
